The Campaign to Save the Boundary Waters 2022 Post-Election Poll   

           
Download the POLL results

Bipartisan support

In a turbulent midterm election characterized by competitive races up and down the ticket, and a polarized electorate concerned about abortion rights, pocketbook issues, and crime, strong net positive support for proposed legislation to permanently protect the Boundary Waters runs across partisan lines:

Pivotal midterm voters

Support for proposed legislation to permanently protect the Boundary Waters is notably high among demographics that proved decisive in the 2022 gubernatorial race, including suburban women (57% Walz, 40% Jensen), urban women (86% Walz, 12% Jensen) and urban men (72% Walz, 27% Jensen):

Voters aged 18 to 34 (64% Walz, 34% Jensen) and 65+ (57% Walz, 41% Jensen) were also decisive in the 2022 gubernatorial race, along with other critical Democratic victories, and both cohorts support proposed legislation to permanently protect the Boundary Waters by comparably large margins:

Minnesotans seeking legislative action

Over the past few election cycles, polling has consistently found that Minnesotans overwhelmingly support protecting the Boundary Waters, and midterm voters in this survey demonstrate unwavering support for legislative action to permanently protect the Boundary Waters.^[2] That sentiment has transcended political administrations and remains robust among Minnesota’s electorate today.

APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY

Change Research surveyed 1,098 2022 Minnesota voters from November 7-10, 2022. We used the following source to recruit respondents: A total of 1,098 respondents came from SMS text messages.

• Text messages were sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data (1.098 respondents).

Respondents were directed to a survey hosted on SurveyMonkey’s website. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.

The survey was commissioned by The Campaign to Save the Boundary Waters, and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, and the 2022 gubernatorial and attorney general vote. Weighting parameters were estimated based on the electorates from the 2022 modeled general election composition, obtained from the voter file, and also determined by the reported 2022 vote. That is, if a given age bracket or gender group represented x% of the 2022 electorate, then that same group would be roughly weighted to x% in this survey.

The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 3.2%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting.

* We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.

** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents, and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2).

(1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/ (2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.

For more information, contact Philip Archer at philip@changeresearch.com.

APPENDIX: DEMOGRAPHICS

Are you male or female?

49%     Male

51         Female

In what year were you born?

18%     18 to 34

23         35 to 49

31         50 to 64

27         65+

In what ZIP code do you currently live?

60%     Minn/St Paul

23         North

17         South

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

12%     High school diploma or less

22         Some college, but no degree

18         Associate’s degree, or two-year college degree

31         Bachelor’s degree, or four-year college degree

17         Graduate degree

What is your race?

 85%    White / Caucasian

 5         Black or African American

 4         Asian / Pacific Islander

 3         Hispanic or Latino/a

 1         American Indian or Alaska Native

 2         Other

Are you registered to vote in Minnesota?

100%    Yes

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a:

34%     Strong Democrats

8          Weak Democrats

8          Independent lean Democrats

6          Pure independents

8          Independent lean Republicans

8          Weak Republicans

28         Strong Republicans

REPORTED QUESTIONS

In the election for Governor, who did you vote for?

• Tim Walz, Democratic-Farmer-Labor
• Scott Jensen, the Republican
• Steve Patterson, Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party
• James McCaskel, Legal Marijuana Now Party
• Hugh McTavish, Independence-Alliance Party
• Gabrielle Prosser, Socialist Workers Party
• Did not vote in this race
• Don’t recall

Some people have proposed legislation to permanently protect the Boundary Waters from risks associated with sulfide-ore copper mining. Would you support or oppose permanent protections for the Boundary Waters?

• Strongly support
• Somewhat support
• Somewhat oppose
• Strongly oppose
• Don’t know